2022. The Banquet Of Consequences.
“Sooner or later, we all sit at the banquet of our consequences.” Robert Louis Stevenson 2022 will be a banquet of consequences. A rising rate of change in both growth
Insights to Help Craft Your Legacy
Best practices are meant to be shared. That’s why we observe the market and then share our insights on what’s happening, to give you context. We’ve organized every blog into categories, so it’s easier for you to find the answers that matter most to you.
Retail Sales,New Orders Soar. Metcalfe’s Law And Crypto. Demographics And Growth. Sound Money Return? Inflation Allocation.
1. Retails sales explode alongside Inflation. Philly Fed new orders hit a 20 year high. Quad 2 reflation confirming in Q4 2021. Total retail sales jumped by 1.7% in
Dollar Purchasing Power Plunge Accelerating.
1. The downtrend in dollar purchasing power is accelerating rapidly, and faster than you may realize. The CPI actually understates the downtrend due to “hedonic” adjustments made to the
Quad 2 Reflation. Continuing record stimulus. Timing On Gold. Procyclical Buybacks.
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/11/05/average-new-vehicle-price-spikes-19-in-10-months-to-44000-in-october-unit-sales-tick-up-still-down-34-from-march-amid-inventory-shortage/ The charts above show the extremes of higher prices and lower sales that are being experienced in the US car market. Growth and inflation are likely to accelerate in
Extreme Policy. Inflation Predicament. Signals And Consequences.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/what-is-the-federal-reserve-hiding-from-us 1. “The most inappropriate monetary policy that I’ve seen maybe in my lifetime.”- Paul Tudor Jones on the Federal Reserve via CNBC. Last week’s chart showed the all time
Weekly Investment Insights. Inflation Policy Extreme. Reflation for now.
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1451905747235840004 1. The 5 year inflation break even hits 3%! Far above the 2% Federal Reserve objective. The markets are challenging the Fed’s commitment to its inflation target. So why
Can The Fed Save Us From Inflation? Or Can Inflation Can Save Us From The Fed?
1. Persistently declining long term growth and an exploding debt burden has set Treasury yields on an ever lower crash point yield level. The chart above shows persistently lower highs
Inflation Accelerating Again As Fed Talks Tough But Takes No Action.
1. Current Inflation Spike Already Rivals Stagflationary 1973 and 1980. “The US Consumer Price Index has risen from 0.3% annualized to 5.3% over just the last 15 months. The last
Q2 2021 Review. From Extreme Distortion To Unstable Dysfunction.
Q2 2021 Review. From Extreme Distortion To Unstable Dysfunction. One way to look at whether QE has distorted asset prices is to create a ratio chart. The chart below shows
The “Helicopter Parent” Fed and the Fatal Crash of Risk. To Succeed as an Investor, You Need to Understand These 2 Simple Concepts.
“Helicopter Parents generate a perfection of moral hazard, defined as there is no incentive to hedge risk because one is protected from its consequences. Moral hazard perversely increases the incentives
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