Time To Review The Fed. Quad 4 Test Coming.
“The real problem for the Fed is that it has completely abandoned any semblance to a systematic policy framework, in apparent preference for a purely discretionary one. By relentlessly depriving
Insights to Help Craft Your Legacy
Best practices are meant to be shared. That’s why we observe the market and then share our insights on what’s happening, to give you context. We’ve organized every blog into categories, so it’s easier for you to find the answers that matter most to you.
Passive Investing and Bubbles. Distortion and Instability. Review of History, Math And Behavioral Factors.
“If you push indexation to its logical extreme, you will get preposterous results” – Charlie Munger Passive equity investing dominated investing styles at the close of
“The fourth superbubble of the last hundred years”
Since the beginning of December this Insight has been talking about the emerging headwinds for the first half of 2022. It is as well to understand scale and depth of
Gold/Stocks correlates with Quad 4. “How Yellen and Powell went rogue on monetary policy.”
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1483554635222642689 A clear quad 4 (declining rate of change in both inflation and growth) market signal is gold outperforming equities. Investors should consider the probability of the data
“Most Reckless Fed Ever”.
The Most Reckless Fed Ever With A Continuing Contradiction. Serious About Inflation? So Why Does Extreme Easy Policy Continue? Even Fed Chairman Powell states this week, “it’s a
Economy Policy Is Accelerating In A Challenging Direction. Consequences For The Near Term Economic Cycle And Long Term Growth.
https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1405803011419561985/photo/1 How money, credit, and the economy work together is key for long term investment success. The bottom line is that US economic policy has been accelerating in the
Growth Stocks Or Gold Miners?
https://twitter.com/ISABELNET_SA/status/1475455511675949057 As Warren Buffett says, “Only when the tide goes out, do you discover who’s been swimming naked”. The correlation between stocks and the Fed’s balance sheet over the last
2021 Peak Policy Extreme. 2022 Challenges And Opportunities.
2021 was a Fed sponsored market freak show. The markets were dominated by record levels of liquidity, leverage and speculation with the most stimulative financial conditions ever. This produced market
Central Bank Noise. Investor Behavior. Colliding Objectives.
“Wherever there is prediction, there is ignorance, and probably more of it than we think.” Daniel Kahneman, #Noise “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy
Beyond Leverage And Liquidity. The Market’s Warning Signals.
https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1469282111001669635 The chart above shows that the real earnings yield of the S&P 500 is the worst it has ever been. This chart was produced prior to today’s even higher
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