“Don’t Fade the Fed!” has been the most successful trading and investing strategy for over 6 years. This simple recipe has been driven by the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, as their “market activities” have

  Is it possible for a stock market to trade at all-time highs even as the underlying economy plunges into a deflationary recession with record levels of debt? Until recently

  The Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPnow model is quickly growing a reputation for the most accurate advance estimate for GDP. It is now tracking a negative growth rate for GDP over

The one clear message from the Fed meeting this week, was that any economic indicators that did not fit their narrative were just “Transitory”. Having been consistently wrong in their forecasts

This week the downside break of the US Dollar uptrend seems to have been confirmed. As the direction of the US dollar is central to allocation across all asset classes

We now have 4 major economic indicators that are falling year-on-year at levels that have never been seen outside of a recession. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-15/four-chartsmen-recession Furthermore, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPnow model

Central banks have created a new kind of bubble that is far more complex than technology stocks in 2000, or house prices in 2006/7. Those were hard enough for most

Improving systemic approaches to markets is a never-ending iterative process of back-testing and building on previous experience. Fortunately, every once in a while, it can be highly rewarding. With enough time, testing and good

No matter how much the media, Federal Reserve, or academic economists tell us about the current economic “recovery”, it still rings hollow on main street. On closer examination it doesn’t even stack up. Economics

Never smile at a crocodile. No, you can’t get friendly with a crocodile. Don’t be taken in by his welcome grin. He’s imagining how well you’d fit within his skin.