“The Fed is perpetuating a promise that stocks can’t go down.” Keith McCullough “The problem arises because the Fed, like other major central banks, has now become a creature of

This isn’t transitory its cyclical Yield curve reflects weak economy/deflationary risks Recession forecasts for 2016 Meanwhile the data still comes in weak Bubble outperformance has lost momentum Investors need a

  Cycle experts disagree with the Fed Pronounced, Pervasive, Persistent weakness in the data Latest data shows weakest ex-auto retail sales for 6 years Markets reflect economic weakness too Globally, including

Everywhere you look the economic warning signs are overwhelmingly evident. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Collapsing Corporate earnings are also showing recession warning signals The Credit Cycle is confirming corporate earnings weakness

How many US recession signals? How many global recession signals? “Bubble right in front of our faces” If we don’t change the way money is created. 9 challenges for the world

Continuing economic down cycle. Offset by yet more debt. But take a look! Extreme long term return-to-risk condition. Conviction the key to a winning strategy. Bubbles can be beaten and with very low volatility.

Markets Disassociate. Look under the hood. No real equity bull market. Fed is compounding dysfunction. Unavoidable Conversation Now. Even on Bloomberg. “Collapse begins when real reform becomes impossible”. 8 reasons why the

“We’re all minions now of the stock market” QE has no impact on Nominal GDP growth Interest rates now insensitive to liquidity excess Banking Lending mainly for capital markets not economy S&P

Q3 earnings look like confirming an earnings recession Caterpillar results indicate a global industrial depression But what do earnings have to do with stock markets? Buybacks USD/JPY China Too! Policy ever more

Clarity and Transparency Static allocation from MPT to AW NAAIM says 95% of advisor funds remain in Static Allocation Strategies Adaptive Selective Allocation Cycle Dynamics Macro models, Bayesian models, and combinations