“We frontloaded a tremendous Market Rally” US stock prices have been inflated far above fundamental valuation ISM manufacturing has now fallen below 50 for 2 months in a row. Factory orders signal

“The Fed is perpetuating a promise that stocks can’t go down.” Keith McCullough “The problem arises because the Fed, like other major central banks, has now become a creature of

This isn’t transitory its cyclical Yield curve reflects weak economy/deflationary risks Recession forecasts for 2016 Meanwhile the data still comes in weak Bubble outperformance has lost momentum Investors need a

  Cycle experts disagree with the Fed Pronounced, Pervasive, Persistent weakness in the data Latest data shows weakest ex-auto retail sales for 6 years Markets reflect economic weakness too Globally, including

Everywhere you look the economic warning signs are overwhelmingly evident. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Collapsing Corporate earnings are also showing recession warning signals The Credit Cycle is confirming corporate earnings weakness

How many US recession signals? How many global recession signals? “Bubble right in front of our faces” If we don’t change the way money is created. 9 challenges for the world

Continuing economic down cycle. Offset by yet more debt. But take a look! Extreme long term return-to-risk condition. Conviction the key to a winning strategy. Bubbles can be beaten and with very low volatility.