
US Stocks Discount Only A Mild Recession
Misinformation and cycle blindness seem to be dominant dangers for market participants. The charts below show there should be no confusion about the downcycle in growth, which is being reinforced
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Misinformation and cycle blindness seem to be dominant dangers for market participants. The charts below show there should be no confusion about the downcycle in growth, which is being reinforced

The under 55 US population fell 20m in the last 10 years,
Lower Productivity lowers growth raises inflation,
Tension Between Fiscal and Monetary Policy ….. US Treasury role

How can you ever really enjoy and relax about your current wealth and investment future unless accountability to capital preservation is hard wired into everything you are doing? Capital preservation

The chart shows that inflationary conditions, as seen last in the 1970s, are highly damaging for equity valuations. The average valuation for equities is more than 50% below the current

Typically stocks bottom well after the first interest rate cut, which may much longer than investors realize.
Given the debt levels, it will be much more difficult to reach

The standard equity and bond allocation has been disastrous in 2022.
Investors who do not manage risk and drawdowns, have challenging compounding consequences.

Despite the extremes in historically reliable valuation measures, we can be certain of one thing: investors don’t care. They never do at market extremes. If they did, the financial markets

The Fed may benefit from adding QT and liquidity management to its interest rate tool, but this will likely be a direct hit on the stock market….

A healthy market and economy can’t continue for long without access to ample credit. The Bank stocks have been underperforming for well over 3 years. Far longer than they did

What has become clear over the last month is that while central banks have been raising rates to contain inflation, the growth outlook has continued to deteriorate. Of key importance
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