
“Sea Change” – Expanding Debt Trap And Instability
In recent years the Federal Reserve has been alternating between opposite extremes in policy. An expanding debt trap comes with ever more violent cycles. How can investors manage this optimally?
Best practices are meant to be shared. That’s why we observe the market and then share our insights on what’s happening, to give you context. We’ve organized every blog into categories, so it’s easier for you to find the answers that matter most to you.

In recent years the Federal Reserve has been alternating between opposite extremes in policy. An expanding debt trap comes with ever more violent cycles. How can investors manage this optimally?

With a recession likely dead ahead, the focus will quickly shift to not only how deep the recession will have to be to get to the inflation target, but also

The equity rally since October can be attributed to peak cycle inflation and improving interest rates prospects. These are necessary but insufficent conditions for a durable equity market rally. Corporate

Check you premise and question short term market behavior. The pivot obsession seems to be a temporary market factor. Guessing the timing of the interest rate pivot on each data

How can you ever really enjoy and relax about your current wealth and investment future unless accountability to capital preservation is hard wired into everything you are doing? Capital preservation

The chart shows that inflationary conditions, as seen last in the 1970s, are highly damaging for equity valuations. The average valuation for equities is more than 50% below the current

Typically stocks bottom well after the first interest rate cut, which may much longer than investors realize.
Given the debt levels, it will be much more difficult to reach

The standard equity and bond allocation has been disastrous in 2022.
Investors who do not manage risk and drawdowns, have challenging compounding consequences.

Despite the extremes in historically reliable valuation measures, we can be certain of one thing: investors don’t care. They never do at market extremes. If they did, the financial markets

A healthy market and economy can’t continue for long without access to ample credit. The Bank stocks have been underperforming for well over 3 years. Far longer than they did
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