US Now Tracking A Technical Recession.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPnow model is quickly growing a reputation for the most accurate advance estimate for GDP. It is now tracking a negative growth rate for GDP over
Insights & Research from
CB Investment Management
Best practices are meant to be shared. That’s why we observe the market and then share our insights on what’s happening, to give you context. We’ve organized every blog into categories, so it’s easier for you to find the answers that matter most to you.
Transitory Denial. Umbrellas don’t cause rain.
The one clear message from the Fed meeting this week, was that any economic indicators that did not fit their narrative were just “Transitory”. Having been consistently wrong in their forecasts
Recession Watch
We now have 4 major economic indicators that are falling year-on-year at levels that have never been seen outside of a recession. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-15/four-chartsmen-recession Furthermore, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPnow model
“the set of financial market conditions that we deem” – NY Federal Reserve President Dudley
Central banks have created a new kind of bubble that is far more complex than technology stocks in 2000, or house prices in 2006/7. Those were hard enough for most
How To Improve Bond Returns with Cycle Dynamics
Improving systemic approaches to markets is a never-ending iterative process of back-testing and building on previous experience. Fortunately, every once in a while, it can be highly rewarding. With enough time, testing and good
Financial Geopolitics Distorting Capital Market System.
The widespread endorsement of the China led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) may mark a major shift away from a US dollar centric global financial system. This has major implications for global financial markets
“Recovery”? Fake And Failing.
No matter how much the media, Federal Reserve, or academic economists tell us about the current economic “recovery”, it still rings hollow on main street. On closer examination it doesn’t even stack up. Economics
Essential Clarity on the Federal Reserve
“Founding the Fed Instead of Ending Fractional Reserve Banking The Fed was founded under false economic premises–to prevent bank runs by providing temporary liquidity to banks which found themselves unable
The Financial Folly Lurking Beneath Yellen’s Patient Lack Of Impatience
The Federal Reserve and the banking system now see no alternative to perpetuating the extraordinary valuation of financial assets relative to GDP, shown in the chart above. However, the
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