Transitory Denial. Umbrellas don’t cause rain.
The one clear message from the Fed meeting this week, was that any economic indicators that did not fit their narrative were just “Transitory”. Having been consistently wrong in their forecasts
Insights to Help Craft Your Legacy
Best practices are meant to be shared. That’s why we observe the market and then share our insights on what’s happening, to give you context. We’ve organized every blog into categories, so it’s easier for you to find the answers that matter most to you.
Is the US dollar uptrend over?
This week the downside break of the US Dollar uptrend seems to have been confirmed. As the direction of the US dollar is central to allocation across all asset classes
Recession Watch
We now have 4 major economic indicators that are falling year-on-year at levels that have never been seen outside of a recession. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-15/four-chartsmen-recession Furthermore, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPnow model
“the set of financial market conditions that we deem” – NY Federal Reserve President Dudley
Central banks have created a new kind of bubble that is far more complex than technology stocks in 2000, or house prices in 2006/7. Those were hard enough for most
US Economic Stagnation And The Way Forward
“Eating Our Seed Corn: The causes of U.S. economic stagnation, and the way forward” – John Hussman Deep and powerful analysis from John Hussman. The bullet points say it all, but the
The Deliberate Blindness Of Our Economic Central Planners
“The models we use for decision making determine the outcomes we experience. So, if our models are faulty or flawed, we make bad decisions and suffer bad outcomes. Professor, author
How To Improve Bond Returns with Cycle Dynamics
Improving systemic approaches to markets is a never-ending iterative process of back-testing and building on previous experience. Fortunately, every once in a while, it can be highly rewarding. With enough time, testing and good
Financial Geopolitics Distorting Capital Market System.
The widespread endorsement of the China led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) may mark a major shift away from a US dollar centric global financial system. This has major implications for global financial markets
“Recovery”? Fake And Failing.
No matter how much the media, Federal Reserve, or academic economists tell us about the current economic “recovery”, it still rings hollow on main street. On closer examination it doesn’t even stack up. Economics
Essential Clarity on the Federal Reserve
“Founding the Fed Instead of Ending Fractional Reserve Banking The Fed was founded under false economic premises–to prevent bank runs by providing temporary liquidity to banks which found themselves unable
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