The current economic cycle is remarkably normal. Policy not so much. “Flawed Assumptions and Grand experiments” But the New Normal is anything but normal; “All the readings of artificial

Two Simple Investment Transformations Transformation 1: Cycle Dynamics A simple example shows the first transformation Transformation 2: Money management with “Tradestops” Cycle Dynamics and Tradestops can now be combined with other models to

  Gold is widely misunderstood “you’re likely ignoring your single greatest advantage as an investor.” A simple example shows why Gold has returned to long term uptrend criteria just as stocks and bonds are

Are “central bank policies going to bankrupt corporate America?” Debt diverges from cashflow GAAP earnings have fallen 18% over the last 15 months, back to 2012 levels Earnings will fall much

CBIM out performance in Q1   Portfolio volatility less than 25% of US equities   Slight Negative correlation to US equities Yet Most Active Managers Just Had Their Worst Quarter In 18 Years Central

Bill Black Devastating Consequences On Middle Class Corporate Credit – 15 Year Low World Trade – 10 Year Low No locomotive For Global Growth GDPnow Collapse Corporate Profits Collapse “Markets”

  “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” – Benjamin Graham. The money management edge is just the beginning. “Finance is

Dollar breaks uptrend vs gold The belief system is breaking down ECRI explains the deeply entrenched nature of persistently weaker growth Industrial production recessionary Retail Sales recessionary Inventory levels recessionary

  Central Bank Casino European Central Bank president Draghi’s huge policy package is a bust S&P 500 could be 60% inflated versus global equities S&P 500 could be 60% inflated versus